It's the All-Star break, which also serves as the unofficial halfway point to the season (despite not truly being halfway) as it is I'll take this break in action to offer my State of the Mariners. Of course we must first say congratulations to
Ichiro and J.J. Putz who will be representing the M's in the mid-summer classic, and both are very deserving. Also there will be some points that are either borrowed from or mirrored by other Mariners writers, such as the
USS Mariner and
Geoff Baker's Seattle Times blog.
First off the tale of the tape:*
- Record: 49-36 (.576) 27-15 at home, 22-21 on the road, 2.5 out of the AL West (LA Angels) and 1.5 out of the Wild Card (Cleveland Indians). Their 49-36 record is good for 5th best in the AL, but interestingly enough would be the best record in the NL (SD is 49-38 and Mil is 49-39)
- Stats:
{BATTING} (Team)
- 8th in runs scored(424), 9th in runs allowed(407), 10th in home runs (78), 3rd best average (.283), 6th in On Base Percentage (.337), least amount of Strike Outs with 417 (2nd is Min: 447), dead LAST in walks 219 (2nd is LA with 254), 10th in Stolen Bases, Tied 2nd in caught stealing with 15 (lowest total times caught)
{PITCHING}
- 10th in ERA (4.47), T2nd in Complete Games (4), T1st in Shut Outs (8), 11th in Opponents Batting Average (.274), Tied for least stolen bases allowed (33), 9th in runners caught stealing (16), 4th in Errors (least) 51
* - Rankings are against American League only (14 teams)
Some of these stats are pretty surprising to me, the most glaring being the amount of team strikeouts. To not only lead the league, but by a healthy margin (30) from a team that currently bats Richie Sexson (avg 157 k/p season) and Adrian Beltre (avg 103 k/p season) somewhere in the middle of the lineup is somewhat of a feat. But that also helps explain the high team batting average, as the team is striking out less and thus putting the ball in play and increasing ones chances of reaching base. While I don't see that trend ending any time soon with good contact players such as Ichiro, Kenji, and Yuni Betancourt, I'm worried about the fact that the Mariners are dead last in bases on balls by a rather wide margin. It is odd that the team with the "best eye" would also be the team with the "worst eye." If the team is not taking bases that means that
- They are not making the opposing pitch throw pitches thus allowing them to go farther into games
- They are not getting onto base as often for all those balls being put into play
- Sooner or later the low amount of walks will lead to an increase in strikeouts and thus a drop in average
Sexson leads the team with 34, which is good for 63rd in the majors. Ichiro has 31 but for walks are not as much a factor for him as he gets on base plenty anyways. Worrisome to me is the fact that Yuni has 11 bb, Jose Lopes 15, and Kenji just 9 on the season. They all are batting for avg (.271, .284, and .292 respectively), but eventually some of those balls hit are going to become outs, and the amount of walks will become even more magnified. Yuni is the only one of the three fast enough to leg out infeild hits like Ich, but he has the lowest OBP of the three (.297). Hopefully John McLaren can preach some better plate discipline to the team. More walks would also help the mariners on the basepaths, where new Manager McLaren has promised to be more aggressive and running more. Already Jose Guillen responded with 2 sb (1 cs) in the Oakland series (although I think I might even be able to steal a base off Jason Kendall). This approach should suit the M's perfectly, as while they lack good speed outside of Ich and Yuni (and to some extent Adrian) they make alot of contact and with runners moving this could lead to extra bases being taken and (hopefully) more runs (although I think the Mariners should be much more aggressive on the basepaths, as runners whom I thought had a good chance to score were held up at third).
As for the pitching, this is where we encounter the teams biggest strength and biggest weakness. The bullpen has been amazing this season, With JJ slamming the door in the ninth (24/24 on save opps, 0.88 ERA and a microscopic 0.59 WHIP). Of course the gentlemen getting the ball to JJ from the time our starters leave (which is usually quite some time) have been almost as amazing. Our lefties have been lights out lead by George Sherrill (1.29, 0.64) and Eric O'Flaherty (2.08, 0.96), and the righties haven't been too shabby either, as Sean Green has pitched well (2.53, 1.59) and Brendan Morrow has shown he has dominant stuff (although 33 bb in 32.0 ip is not good). Now the only problem is the guys getting the game to the bullpen. The starters have been horribly inconsistent, showing up at times and disappearing at others. Washburn has been the steadiest, going 8-6 with a 3.72 ERA. This is the major weak link of the team, and even a modest improvement from the rotation would be a huge boost to this team. The defense behind them has been good, as we've committed the fourth lowest amount of errors. The two main culprits have been Yuni (19!) and Beltre (9). AB is about where he was last year when he committed 15 total, but Yuni is WELL ahead of his pace from last year, when he committed 20 total on the year. It is not his glove that is betraying him, but rather his throws, which he has been losing control of. He seems at times to rush his throws which makes them off target, but I think more then a few have been from him trying to show off. While I love the way he plays the game, errors like those can be killer in a pennant race. I expect him to be much better in the 2nd half and especially when hes healthy.
Now, what to do with this team? Being as we are contenders, we will be buyers in the trade market instead of sellers. But what to buy, and how much do we pay? While there are a few holes on this team, I think that most if not all could be addressed in house. First order of business is to bring up Adam Jones and start him immediately in Left Field. This would allow us to move Raul to the DH, and relegate Vidro to a pinch hitter. I see no way at all how this wouldn't be an upgrade, as jones would improve the LF defense markedly, and Jones Ibanez is a better batting combo then ibanez vidro in my eyes. Jones offers more power then vidro and much more speed, something the M's are lacking a bit. Also, Vidro being a veteran hitter would probably give him a better chance of being a good pinch hitter then someone like jones who would be better off starting then trying to come in and hit in a pressure spot. Our bench would improve with this move also, as we would have two hitters off the pine (Vidro and Broussard [who I would put at DH over Vidro if Jones is NOT called up]) and two speed/defense players in Willie and Jason Ellison (who is the man for going 4/4 against then punking Joe Blanton), not to mention The Man Jamie Burke. Next move I believe we should make is to send down Morrow for Mark Lowe (of course when he has built up his arm strength again). This would allow Morrow to get some time in the minors where he could work on a breaking ball and gaining better command of fastball. This would also allow us the option to add a power arm to our bullpen for a pennant run after the trade deadline has passed. As for the starters, there is not much I think we should do other then to let our rotation get fully healthy and work out some kinks. Weaver has been much better of late, and Batista should continue to improve as he gets more comfortable. Also, there is not much starting pitching available through trade, and I do not want to mortgage the future for a rent a pitcher (NO Matt Morris).
My Line-up for the 2nd half:
- Ichiro CF
- Lopez 2b
- Ibanez DH
- Sexson 1B
- Jojima C
- Beltre 3b
- Guillen RF
- Jones LF
- Betancourt SS
Bench: Vidro, Willie, Broussard (platoon DH, LF, 1B) Burke, Ellison (may have to be sent down/waived to make room for Jones)
Other:
- Reader Travis M. asked me not to be so bitter about Rashard. In response, yes it came out bitter but i believe we have every right to be. The organization took such good care of him and the fans always backed him (including me who bought his F**king jersey), despite the fact that he was content to launch 3's and not rebound despite being 6'10. I also don't agree with your assertation that we are better off without him. I agree that we are better off not paying him that much money as he is not that type of player, but no team will ever be better off without a 6'10 swing forward who puts up 20+ a night and is a great 3 point shooter, not to mention still in his 20's. I just feel that he left us high and dry after everything we have done for him. and I still have to find a good use for his jersey, and I'm open to suggestions.
- Reader Rene G. has asked for more non-seattle sports topics. With the NBA and NFL not in season yet, and only the Mariners to watch right now it will be a mostly seattle sports theme for the time being. There will be a piece on US Mens Soccer coming up (I know you all are pumped for that). And sorry, but I didn't watch the worst Finals in years this season so I can't provide much insight on that.
- TOMMOROW: Down on the Farm: A look at the kids in the Mariners Minor League organizations
